ASSA Climate Index

The Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) Climate Index aims to quantify the frequency of extreme weather events in South Africa. By providing a systematic measure of climate extremes, the index assists in risk assessment and planning across various industries. Updated seasonally, this tool is crucial for understanding long-term climate trends and their implications on environmental and economic stability.

Climate index background

What is the index

The Actuarial Society of South Africa's Climate Index is an analytical tool designed to monitor and quantify the frequency of extreme weather events in South Africa. The index is composed of several key components:

  • Extreme Maximum Temperature: Tracks occurrences of unusually high temperatures.
  • Extreme Minimum Temperature: Monitors instances of significantly low temperatures.
  • Extreme Precipitation: Measures periods of unusually heavy rainfall.
  • Drought Conditions: Assesses the severity and duration of drought periods.
  • Composite Index: A holistic measure that integrates all individual components to provide an overall climate extremity score.

Each component of the index is available as a time series based on historical weather data which can be used to identify trends and anomalies. The results are standardized to create a clear, interpretable scale that indicates the frequency of extreme conditions compared to historical norms.

Development

The technical development of the index was led by Prof Rendani Mbuvha from the University of Manchester and Dr Nadine van der Walt from Riskscape. We further acknowledge the valuable contributions of Prof Willem Landman from the University of Pretoria based on his meteorological expertise.

Future Developments

Looking ahead, the ASSA Climate Index plans to introduce new components such as Hail-leading conditions, Extreme wind, and Fire-leading conditions. We are committed to refining our methods for aggregating individual components, and geographical regions and expanding the index to include predictive scenarios and broader geographical coverage across other African nations. Future developments also include industry collaborations to align the index with claims experiences, enhancing its practical application and relevance.

Sponsoring Organizations

Actuarial Society of South Africa

The Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) is the professional body for actuaries in South Africa. It serves the public interest by regulating and supporting the actuarial profession, ensuring high standards of practice and ethics. ASSA also provides education and professional development opportunities for actuaries and promotes the actuarial profession within South Africa and internationally.